Analyzes

The geopolitical landscape has remained the almost exclusive driver of the sentiment surrounding the global markets this week.

A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.

Following a quiet opening to the week, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since mid-June above $4,300, supported by cooling geopolitical tensions and investors scaling back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.

Gold is finding fresh demand in Asia on Friday, pausing a sharp pullback from seven-week highs of $4,304 reached a day before. However, Gold bulls stay cautious ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data release.

The Aussie Dollar’s recovery appears to have met some resistance in the 0.7050-0.7060 band against the US Dollar so far.

When a major macroeconomic release hits the wires, traders instinctively turn to Treasury yields, the US Dollar (USD), Equity futures or the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge the market’s reaction. Increasingly, however, another screen is attracting attention: Prediction markets.