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Sky-high US-China tariffs are a mutual trade embargo that will hurt both sides
Effects could tip US into recession and undermine China’s already fragile economy but prospects for rapprochement are not hopeless
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Sky-high tariffs that now hang heavily over US-China trade mean, effectively, that they have declared a trade embargo on each other, normally an act of war. The economic consequences for both will hurt.
America’s $150bn (£113bn) or so of exports to China will fall away quickly, while China’s $440bn worth of exports to the US may drop by up to 75% over the next 18 months, unless some sort of negotiation happens. No one will be spared the effects.
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Will Trump’s tariff chaos be China’s gain in global trade wars?
As China retaliates against tariffs, it is also making strategic manoeuvres on EU and Asia to maximise opportunities
On the basis of Napoleon’s dictum “never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake”, there was a large incentive for China to do precisely nothing as Donald Trump displayed his determination to lose friends and induce market panic. Indeed, the Chinese advocates of passivity cited a social media meme attributed to President Xi Xinping: “Do nothing. Win.”
Initially it was tempting for China to sit back and watch the US’s former allies recoil at Trump’s disruptive war on globalisation and let them realise that,by comparison, China represented an oasis of stability, modernity and predictability.