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I’ve seen many phoney trade wars come and go. This is the real thing | Larry Elliott
This battle between the US and China goes far beyond market turmoil – it has killed off the liberal dream of a borderless world
Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 104% tariff on Chinese imports into the US has spooked the financial markets. The response is entirely rational.
Over the past few decades, phoney trade wars have been commonplace. Rival nations have squared off against each other, indulged in a bit of sabre-rattling, but eventually agreed on a deal. Headlines that screamed “trade war looms” were quickly replaced by those that read “trade war averted”.
This time it’s different. The battle between the US and China prompted by Trump’s tariffs is no pretend trade war. It is the real deal – and it will have real consequences. Tariffs operate as a tax, adding to the costs of doing business and raising prices for consumers. Growth will slow and inflation rates will rise. The global economy was already growing only slowly. As things stand, it is now heading for recession.
Trump seems prepared for this, making it clear that he is ready for some short-term pain for what he thinks will be long-term gains: a revitalised US industrial base and higher exports. This also represents a shift in approach. In the past, US policymakers have tended to take fright at big falls on Wall Street and have eased policy to limit the damage.
Not this time, it appears. Or at least not yet. Trump promised to impose swingeing tariffs when he was running for president last year, but the expectation was that this was just campaign rhetoric. Instead, he has delivered on his pledges – and then some.
Despite the obvious parallels, this is not Trump’s Liz Truss moment, where he can be forced into a policy U-turn by a sell-off in US assets. Important though they are, the market turmoil and the heightened risk of recession are only part of the story. Trade will continue despite Trump’s tariffs and China’s tit-for-tat response to them. Talk of the end of globalisation is exaggerated. Rather, the dawn of a new protectionist era represents the end of a particular model of globalisation, an imagined liberal nirvana in which all barriers – to movement of goods, people and money – would be dismantled.
This hyper-liberalised dream world has been on its way out ever since the global financial crisis of 2008, and all that was needed was a final shove, which Trump has just administered. From now on, migration will be restricted, supply chains will be shorter, hands-on industrial strategies will be back in favour, trade barriers will be removed only slowly.
Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist
China and EU retaliate against tariffs as Trump says ‘great time to move companies to the US’ – business live
Stock markets down in UK and across Europe after steep declines in Asia, while turmoil spreads to bond market
- China announces 84% tariffs on all US goods in response to Trump’s 104%
- Bank of England warns Trump tariffs threaten global growth and raise risk of ‘severe shocks’
Today’s tariffs follow Trump’s 10% tariff on all imports from many countries, including Australia, which came into effect at the weekend.
US customs agents began collecting the unilateral tariff at US seaports, airports and customs warehouses on Saturday. Today’s measures are higher levies on goods from 57 larger trading partners.
What is behind the Treasury sell-off?
The double whammy of falling bond and equity prices could partly be hedge funds unwinding so-called ‘basis trades’
Starmer rejects claim there are ‘strong arguments’ for suspending fiscal rules amid US tariffs – UK politics live
The PM doubled down on his insistence the government won’t change its fiscal rules, describing them as ‘ironclad’ and ‘non-negotiable’
One person probably more enthusiastic than most about the prospect of Universal opening a theme park in the UK is the Lib Dem leader Ed Davey. He is a great fan of outdoor activity-related photocalls, and he’s been at it again today, and the Gloucester Ski and Snowboarding Centre in Matson, Gloucestershire.
Almost 40 MPs and peers have signed a letter organised by Jeremy Corbyn calling for an independent inquiry into the government’s role in the war in Gaza.
Many people believe the government has taken decisions that have implicated officials in the gravest breaches of international law.
These charges will not go away until there is a comprehensive, public, independent inquiry with the legal power to establish the truth.
Last month, I wrote to the Prime Minister calling for an independent inquiry into the UK’s involvement in Israel’s assault on Gaza.
Today, more than 30 MPs have supported that call.