FxAnalysis

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has ridden a volatile first half of the year, with Oil prices surging and then falling as markets danced to the Middle East’s tune.

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.

While Gold and Copper dominate market attention, Aluminum may be setting up for a much bigger surprise. Beneath the surface, the Aluminum market is tightening fast in what could be the start of a structural supply squeeze.

Gold is swinging between gains and losses at around $4,000 in Monday’s Asian trading, as the US-Iran conflict continues to flare up amid a relatively data-light US economic docket this week.  

The most notable development in this week’s COT report came from live cattle.

This week’s clearest signal is a widening gap between futures positioning and spot performance. GBP short covering remains price-confirmed, while CAD and WTI extended bearish positioning even as prices rose.