


Trump tariffs could lead to a summer drop-off in economic activity after an ‘artificially high’ start, Chicago Fed chief says

The Guardian view on City deregulation: a recipe for recklessness
The Treasury seems to think relaxing financial rules will boost growth. There’s little evidence for this idea – and every reason to believe it could exacerbate risks
In its desire to ensure the City of London remains attractive after Brexit, the Treasury seems to have forgotten one of the major lessons of the 2008 financial crisis: when regulation is lax, risks accumulate. This month, it launched a consultation about whether it was time to lighten the rules governing alternative asset managers, including private equity and hedge funds, in the belief that doing so will boost growth. There is little evidence to support this idea, and every reason to think it could exacerbate systemic risks.
The proposal is consistent with Rachel Reeves’s belief that expanding the financial sector will deliver economic prosperity. The chancellor has suggested that post-crisis regulations went “too far”. Those regulations included an EU directive targeting alternative investment funds. Before 2008, these funds operated mostly in the dark. There was no means of systematically tracking the leverage they were using, nor the dangers this might pose.

Imagine what would happen if America left the IMF

Do those so-called US recession indicators actually mean anything? | Gene Marks
The media likes to advertise well-known metrics like unemployment and the ‘lipstick index’, but the truth is that no one really knows
As someone who keeps a close eye on the economy, I often bump into those strange metrics that people like to write about that, supposedly, unlock the secret of whether or not a recession is looming.
Given what’s going on, it’s no surprise that they are back again. Just last week Bloomberg reported a cut in spending at hair stylists. There’s the “lipstick index” – in tough economic times, women load up on lipstick instead of spending their dwindling funds on bigger-ticket items. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan liked to follow men’s underwear sales because hey, when times are tough, we guys are not willing to buy new shorts.
