ONTRADE Forex

Will Trump’s tariff chaos be China’s gain in global trade wars?

Will Trump’s tariff chaos be China’s gain in global trade wars?

As China retaliates against tariffs, it is also making strategic manoeuvres on EU and Asia to maximise opportunities

On the basis of Napoleon’s dictum “never interrupt your enemy while they are making a mistake”, there was a large incentive for China to do precisely nothing as Donald Trump displayed his determination to lose friends and induce market panic. Indeed, the Chinese advocates of passivity cited a social media meme attributed to President Xi Xinping: “Do nothing. Win.”

Initially it was tempting for China to sit back and watch the US’s former allies recoil at Trump’s disruptive war on globalisation and let them realise that,by comparison, China represented an oasis of stability, modernity and predictability.

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Thursday briefing: Trump puts global tariffs on pause – but hikes them for China

Thursday briefing: Trump puts global tariffs on pause – but hikes them for China

In today’s newsletter: White House officials send mixed messages over Trump’s stunning U-turn

Good morning. Two main pieces of news from Donald Trump yesterday: he has rolled back water efficiency standards to “make America’s showers great again”, because he likes “to take a nice shower to take care of my beautiful hair”; and he has rolled back the exorbitant tariffs he applied to many countries last week to 10% – but increased them for China. “No longer will showerheads be weak and worthless,” the White House said. This will come as welcome news for the many investors who have recently been taking a bath.

It was a pretty chaotic change, all told: there were contradictory messages from Trump’s advisers on which countries would be affected, why he did it, and what Beijing should expect to happen next. Still, the markets breathed a large sigh of relief, and the S&P 500 had one of the strongest days of its postwar history. This morning, share indices in Asia have jumped in turn.

Gaza | Israeli aircraft struck a residential block in war-ravaged northern Gaza on Wednesday, killing at least 23 people, including eight women and eight children health officials said, as the Israeli military is reportedly preparing to seize the entire city of Rafah.

Trade | The UK and India have agreed 90% of their free trade agreement, businesses were told on a call with negotiators this week. There are hopes the UK government will succeed in finalising a highly coveted trade deal with India, a booming economy of 1.4 billion people, this year.

Smartphones | Almost all schools in England have banned mobile phone use by pupils, according to a survey run by Rachel de Souza, the children’s commissioner for England. Among 15,000 schools, 99.8% of primaries and 90% of secondaries have some form of ban.

Defence | Hot weather is expected to bring highs of 24C to the UK as fire services continue to warn of wildfires across the country. The Met Office said temperatures would peak on Friday in London and south-east England, which could make it the hottest day of the year so far, while temperatures could hit 23C on Thursday.

BBC | A controversial sculpture outside the BBC’s headquarters has been restored and put back on display behind a screen after being vandalised, with the corporation saying it in no way condoned the “abusive behaviour” of its creator, Eric Gill. There have long been calls for Gill’s works to be removed since his diaries revealed he had sexually abused his two eldest daughters.

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The Guardian view on Friedrich Merz’s grand coalition: gambling on a new centre ground | Editorial

The Guardian view on Friedrich Merz’s grand coalition: gambling on a new centre ground | Editorial

The deal signed last week between the centre-right CDU and centre-left SPD paves the way for vital investment in Europe’s biggest economy

Some years ago, hundreds of German finance ministry staff dressed in black and formed a giant zero to salute their boss, Wolfgang Schäuble, as he left office. It was a tribute to Mr Schäuble’s extreme fiscal conservatism, which had delivered Germany’s first balanced budget in the postwar period. Amid resurgent prosperity in the Angela Merkel years, the so-called black zero – symbolising a constitutional prohibition on public debt – had gradually acquired cult status.

As a new administration prepares to take power in Berlin, it seems unlikely that human euro signs will welcome the latest politician to take on Mr Schäuble’s former role. But in dramatic fashion, the spending taps are set to be turned on. Via a swiftly staged March vote in the outgoing Bundestag, “debt brake” dogma was consigned to history by the chancellor‑elect, Friedrich Merz. The way was thus paved for groundbreaking expenditure on defence, and the overhaul of an economy being left behind in a changed, suddenly menacing world.

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Thursday briefing: Rachel Reeves heads to Washington in pursuit of a trade deal – will she get one?

Thursday briefing: Rachel Reeves heads to Washington in pursuit of a trade deal – will she get one?

In today’s newsletter: ​The chancellor faces a pivotal moment in the US as she navigates high-stakes negotiations with the Trump administration

Good morning. I’m Annie Kelly, I’ll be bringing you First Edition alongside Archie for the next few weeks.

It’s probably fair to say the annual spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has not traditionally been an event high on drama. Not so this year, as Rachel Reeves and her fellow finance ministers from around the globe have been blown into Washington DC on the chilly winds of global economic chaos caused by Donald Trump’s “America First” economic policies, pithily described in a recent Guardian leader as “part oligarchic enrichment scheme, part mobster shakedown”.

Ukraine | At least nine people have been killed and more than 60 wounded in a “massive” missile attack on Kyiv, according to Ukraine’s state emergency service. It is among the deadliest attacks on the capital of the three-year war.

Labour | Keir Starmer is under pressure from more than 60 Labour MPs to allow thousands of young Europeans to live and work in the UK, a move seen as key to unlocking a more ambitious trade reset with Brussels.

Health | Adults with severe peanut allergies can be desensitised by daily exposure, according to the first clinical trial of its kind. After being given steadily increasing doses of peanut flour over a period of months, two-thirds of the trial participants were able to eat the equivalent of five peanuts without reacting.

NHS | NHS staff are so tired they are dying in car crashes and posing a major threat to patients, the service’s safety watchdog will warn on Thursday. Fatigue among frontline personnel causing them to make mistakes is a “significant” risk to patients, according to the Health Services Safety Investigation Body (HSSIB).

Music | Oasis fans have collectively lost more than £2m to scams since tickets for its reunion tour went on sale last year, a major bank has estimated. Lloyds Banking Group based the calculation on the volume of fraud reports made by its own customers. Oasis fans make up more than half (56%) of all reported concert ticket scams so far this year, losing £436 on average.

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